It's time once again for our regular Open Thread. Talk about whatever you want, so long as it isn't Culture War.
Overhauls are my reviews of Salem and Nautilus, Standard Parts one and two, The DP Gun Problem and for 2023, Landlocked Navies and Honda Point Part 1.
Comments
What does Boeing look like in ten years?
I'm not sure it's going to look too different. There's a lot of integration between different parts of the company, so breaking it up is unlikely. Worst case is probably an airline-style bankruptcy and the bondholders end up owning things, but even that seems unlikely.
@bean
I’m sure they’ll be around with a somewhat similar structure, maybe ex-NASA work. However, I wonder if they’ll focus on revitalizing their commercial side (where they seem to have lost momentum to Airbus), or if they put more focus on defense/government stuff. (Or if they ride the decline and don’t get back)
I can't see Boeing not trying to sell airliners for the foreseeable future, too big a market that Boeing are big in plus it is a major part of their corporate identity.
Of course that requires they be able to continue to compete effectively with Airbus and anyone else who may come along, there was a time when my previous paragraph would have applied to Douglas.
@anon
My question was a bit more subtle, though perhaps not phrased properly.
Barring the truly unexpected, Boeing will undoubtedly go back to making their current lineup (737, 767/KC-46, 777, 787) and some incremental improvements on those platforms over time. However, I think the more nuanced questions are: 1. Do they make the really deep changes to their organization and leadership to address the root causes of their various engineering and quality issues, or do they pursue more tactical fixes that fix the immediate problem but don't really change the mindset?
Hiring a new CEO is certainly a good start, but I think you need much deeper changes in upper and middle management to really change the mindset, and so far it doesn't seem like that's occurring.
To some extent I think they're also handicapped by how well the old engineers did - there isn't a huge amount of extra performance to be wrung out from a clean sheet design vs. the MAX or 777X, especially once you start amortizing the ever escalating R&D costs, which puts them between a rock and a hard place. However, if they don't pursue that extra performance they're likely going to cede more market share to Airbus as time goes on.
Apologies for the formatting. The list should start with the first 1. and then go to a second paragraph, and then the 2.
Wall St would probably prefer 2, as it is less disruptive to existing revenue streams and profit margins. It would take a really really big disaster to bring down Boeing.
Boeing evidently does have company wide culture problems, as shown by the Starliner, but maybe the company is too big to reform?